Facebook's Future

Yes, Facebook is an amazing phenomenon that has shown a remarkable ability to manage its growth up to date.  Developments taking place in the online world have been adopted and adapted by this social site, and over a million developers responsible for churning out over half a million applications are a tremendous force ready to take on new challenges. Which challenges are there in Facebook’s future?  This is a question I intend to answer, albeit in a partial way in this post.

When you blend together over 400 million very active users (each with 130 friends and creating 70 pieces of content per month) plus 1 million eager developers, plus the market pressure to move forward or to the sidelines, I believe we are bound to see big changes in Facebook.  Let me elaborate, or fantasize.

The experience of Second Life and Facebook

Users are meeting in Facebook in the old way (rendered just a little more attractive).  Although communicating using black characters on white background (and many variables) is not very innovative, Facebook’s innovation doesn’t lie there but in other aspects which are explained in many posts and articles.  Although the current user experience when interacting with friends is a great one, in our modern world everything has a tendency to wear out fast and become monotonous, even boring.  Perhaps Facebook could adopt other formulas of interaction already being used on the Internet in order to offer users a new setting to mingle, while maintaining the existing one. I am referring to the possibility of Facebook to put people together, almost physically together, no matter how far apart they really are via virtual worlds.

Second Life was launched by Linden Lab in 2003, when the processing speed of servers and PCs was barely enough and when broadband was slower and less extended.  It gained notoriety fast but at some moment it began to lose traction.  Some people say that moving around in Second Life was a little too complicated and that Linden Lab failed to benefit from legions of third party developers by keeping its software proprietary & failing to open it up to external parties always willing to make a buck in exchange for their input, creativity, freshness and multiplying effect. In my opinion, besides the above arguments, Second Life lacked some indispensable ingredients for an adult virtual world to work.  First, there was not much to do.  I mean, the environment was not engaging.  Flying and watching things was fine for a while.  Just for a while.  In addition, the environment was not really meant for users to interact with friends from the real world, as it happens in Facebook.  You could not bring your old world to the new one: too many new things at once while lacking personal references and simple interaction abilities.

If your question is “Whatever happened to Second Life?” you can read this article by Barry Collins on PC PRO and find out.  Just a paragraph: “Three years on, and Second Life seems no closer to finding a respectable reason for being than it did in 2006. It might try and shuffle sex into a corner, and pretend that it’s a melting pot of creativity, business and academia, but it ultimately serves no purpose.”  Sex has been limited to Zindra, a Second Life’s island, which is the most visited piece of real estate.

Strong Growth of Virtual Worlds

The virtual world craze did not stop with the fading of Second Life into quasi oblivion since other virtual worlds have prospered during these years.  Perhaps the most successful one is World of Warcraft, but The Sims 3, IMVU, with customizable 3D chat rooms and avatars are other examples. Click here for a time-line chart on virtual worlds. The Association of Virtual Worlds published a downloadable book on 2008 containing references to 250 examples.

Undoubtedly, the use of virtual worlds will extend into other areas of society and some years from now they will be part of our regular experience as citizens, even if we are not advanced computer users.  The education industry is looking into it since the virtual environment is well suited to immerse learners into a discipline.  In the meantime, naïve examples are coming to surface.  Whyville is a virtual world “geared for teen and pre-teen girls and boys. Its millions of registered "citizens" come from all over to learn, create, and have fun together. Whyville has places to go, things to do, and of course, people to see. Whyville has its own newspaper, its own Senators…its own suburbia, and even its own economy - citizens earn "clams" by playing educational games.“ 

Is there money for Facebook to go that way?

Are virtual worlds completely foreign to Facebook?  If we consider a virtual world to be a type of online community operating in a computer-simulated environment in which users take the form of avatars to be graphically visible to others, the answer is that: (1) Facebook is already offering some (minor) degree of virtual world experience, (2) users are showing good response, (3) there seems to be some money there or developers would stop writing code.  Farmville boasts over 80M users which are given virtual land to grow crops on. Then, in Restaurant City they can “decorate the facilities with an ever increasing inventory of items which expands as the user levels increase. Avatar creation is minimal, but the user can hire his/her friends to staff the restaurant, with the ability to give the staff uniforms. Money and experience are earned by serving customers”.  Other examples are Yoville, MiniPlanet, SmallWorlds, Café World…etc. So far, these worlds are just simple applications developed by external developers to make some money but they do not play a core role in the Facebook experience, since they are just “games” for distraction which could one day disappear without having a significant effect on the ability of Facebook to engage its users.

Developing a virtual world as one would expect from Facebook would cost a lot of money, since before it can open ‘construction to external contractors’ it would have to do a lot of ground work. Where would the money come from? If only from users, the current goodwill may be put at stake since users may resent that the Facebook environment is becoming too commercial and may start looking for alternatives. Money would have to come, at least at the beginning, from other constituents.

Any business owner willing to show their real facilities would be more than happy to “build” a virtual replica where virtual products could be sold. For that to work in a social medium, the business would have to create virtual events to be visible.  In their desire to attract more real tourists, some cities may decide to create environments where users may interact, play, have fun, gain prizes…etc, while getting acquainted with the highlights of the touristic offer. Do you want to have a chat with your friend in a nice place?  Take her to the observatory of the Burj Khalifa tower in Dubai (tallest building in the world).  You want to show your friend the highlights of your last trip to Tibet?  Take her to the Potala Palace.  Moving and looking for a kindergarten for your 2 year old?  Visit it online first before you talk to them.  Experience it. Or perhaps you are hesitating between two restaurants for your anniversary?  Visit them both.  Go through the menus, see comments from other users… and make up your mind (any reference to Yelp.com type of products is not accidental since Facebook will have to find ways to host existing online properties to become the world of worlds).

I believe there will be several forces pushing for this digital world to happen in Facebook.  First and most important, users have shown interest in exploring these digital new worlds when some basic conditions are met.  Second, private businesses and professionals are keen on the development of social media since it allows the savviest of them to, at least partially, bypass the need of traditional advertising, and to create closer interaction and engagement with their clients.  Third, millions of smart programmers (the first million is there!) would be ready to put their talents to work as the ‘construction workers’.  Last, I’d think that Facebook shareholders would be very happy to build this new “Matrix” layer on their existing platform given the vast array of potential types of revenue. 

Yes, there is money to be made in the virtual worlds.  The newspaper USA Today mentions a study by Frank N. Magid Associates which shows a fast growth in virtual products acquisition. “Biggest spenders?  iPhone owners, with 43% of them saying they made virtual goods purchases (up from 28% last year). Next came virtual worlds visitors, 41% of whom say they have bought digital goods."

The real and the digital world have been getting closer

I first had the impression the real and the digital world were getting closer three years ago when I was giving a ride to my youngest son, 11 at the time, and his friend.  During the 30 minutes trip they had been talking about digital characters and situations as if they were real. Real names and fictional characters were intertwined.

First it was our music.  Then, almost everything became digital. We increasingly interact with our governments in a digital way, as if they were a digital entity. Some people have fallen in love with digital representations of real persons and had real world babies, while others make digital money which they later exchange for real cash.  Recently, thieves have stolen digital furniture to obtain real money and the real Finnish police have entered the digital case to find the real life thieves.

Real and virtual worlds have been getting closer and as users and online companies get more acquainted with the possibilities, the convergence of the two worlds will accelerate.  On top of the real world Google Earth has built a digital interface to relate to it.  Similarly, on top of the real world a layer of digital places will be built to interact with it.  Those digital places can be exact replicas when the objective is to show the real world place. In other cases, they will be adaptations or absolutely new realities. Brand new cities like Brasilia, have been at some moment ghost towns waiting to be populated.  Similarly, virtual worlds will need to be populated by millions of avatars.  Whether for leisure, commercial use, educational purposes, training, pre visualization of real places…etc, they will continue growing until a full blown explosion will come.   

Some brands have already created their own worlds, although in a very simplistic way.  One can see commercial embryos like MTV’s which have a tendency to languish unable to gain visibility in the real world, the great asset of Facebook.  It’s very much like when newspapers only advertise their products in their pages and they only impact their existing readers; the effect is limited.  Instead, Facebook’s millions of users could be given the opportunity to interact where they choose, with text, voice and movement. One can only start to imagine the e-commerce possibilities of such a world!

Is the technology ready?

The technology is quite ready to start a new phase of virtual worlds; rather, it is a proper understanding of the users which is needed for the massive development and colonization of these new worlds. A video presented by Blaise Aguera y Arcas in 2007 shows how Seadragon, a company acquired by Microsoft, produces digital renderings based on photos.  “Photosynth [the product] itself is a vastly powerful piece of software capable of taking a wide variety of images, analyzing them for similarities, and grafting them together into an interactive three-dimensional space. This seamless patchwork of images can be viewed via multiple angles and magnifications, allowing us to look around corners or "fly" in for a (much) closer look.” I recommend that you see this video to see how ready the technology ‘was’ even three years ago.  

Some companies like EveryScape (see image) have been trying to build “engaging, immersive relationships with consumers through three-dimensional, photo-realistic experiences of cities & towns, streets & sidewalks, and building exteriors & interiors…gathering and sharing information on businesses and attractions, entering a store and shopping, checking the menu and reviews of a restaurant”.  These types of projects usually represent the courageous input of a visionary founder and the money of the angel investors he convinced, but they lack the serious investment and marketing requirements to create a world.  These digital replicas are impressive but once you’ve wandered around and see them, what else is there to do? 

For technological prowess one can also mention Google’s Streetview.   You can merge it with Google Maps to walk along any of the multiple cities offered in North America, Western Europe, Japan, Australia…etc.  In short, there are many pieces of technology ready to be used (I am purposely ignoring the issue of patents) with a Social Media-Commercial purpose.  Actually, the different technologies have been ready for some time but no single relevant project has  been the catalyst for them to start building a new world.  Yes, the technology is there waiting to recreate the experience.

Will Facebook go Virtual or we will see Virtual Worlds Going Social?

It is possible that Facebook will not be the player to create this new world and that another company will do it.  There is a history of corporations being well positioned to achieve something important yet failing to do so.  Microsoft has failed at creating a relevant online presence, or a leading mobile platform.  Google seems to have some difficulty in generating serious revenues beyond search.  YouTube is taking too long to become the movie platform of the world…etc.

Still, Facebook’s core business lies in facilitating interaction among users and the virtual worlds’ objective is somehow aligned with that.  Also on the positive side, Facebook is still looking around for real monetization which probably implies that its culture is more flexible and eager than, say, Google’s (Google started an experiment called Lively which had to close when the current financial crisis started). 

My Advice to Facebook on Virtual Worlds

From all the past failures, we can extract some initial takeaways:

1. First, and this is now very obvious, virtual worlds have to focus less on the technical issues and more on the needs of the users.  Technology is relevant and should offer a seamless experience, but it is only second to the user experience.  Technical people should not be in the driving seat.
2. People want to communicate and early virtual environments introduced complexity to achieve that basic need. The world became more important than the person, and it somehow interfered with the act of interacting. The next generation of virtual worlds should study every single aspect of the user experience to greatly simplify it.  Unless the right interactive experience and tools are supplied, a massive virtual world will not be possible. It has to be made simple, even if the solutions are not very ‘virtual-worldish’.  At times a task can be done faster by offering a list than by sending the avatar to look for something in a drawer.
3. The virtual reality experience in Facebook should include elements of Augmented Reality to get a faster grasp of a situation or a place. AR will become very important for Facebook when trying to facilitate access to all sources of information and data  in the virtual world.  Because, let’s be honest, a virtual world can be very boring.  Our current real world involves interaction with the physical environment as well as digital experiences.  A virtual world should go beyond that, and AR is key to enhancing the virtual experience and infusing it with dynamism.
4. For a wide user base, anonymity may not be the way to go. Extreme anonymity seems to only attract limited subsets of people.  Users want to interact with their online contacts, their existing “friends” on the Net.  Otherwise, the experience of entering a new world plus having to do it on your own may be not very compelling; too many unknowns in the equation, at least for the average individual.  That said, Facebook may also have to find ways for people to play in an anonymous way. A user may want to be somewhere or to play a game without being seen by others.
5. It seems that socialization alone may not be enough reason for people to come again and again to a virtual world.  Those new citizens have to be kept busy. Boredom is not allowed since killing boredom is one of the reasons to log on to Facebook.  The platform not only has to facilitate interaction, but to create new formulas to foster personal exchanges in the new environment.
6. As a development of the previous point, and as opposed to the current Facebook platform, the role of gaming in a virtual world seems to play a more important role.  In fact, Facebook is behaving as if they agree  with this point since the only virtual worlds they offer are exclusively for gaming. 
7. Money’s role seems to become more relevant as virtual worlds evolve and increase in complexity.  Human interaction involves exchanges and some kind of currency comes in handy at first, and becomes indispensable later. Money will develop a full economy with all its complexities and for it to prosper, Facebook should allow the prices of in-game items to be established according to supply and demand and not based on educated estimates. Money will also add depth and real-ness to the virtual experience, because when digital money is exchanged for real cash and the user can buy a real sandwich, both our physical world and the virtual merge.
8. Needless to say, users should continue living in a world where living and going about their basic tasks is as free as today.
9. Seamless integration between the current user experience and a virtual world is a must. Users should feel the experience is not radically different. For instance, the “I like” endorsement should exist in all cases, offering great feedback to businesses. A single landing point would offer friends’ updates in both the traditional and the virtual world.  Finding and “teleporting” to meet friends should be made simple.

Creating a new world is a godlike task, a herculean job full of complexities, which should be approached slowly, with a pragmatic spirit. The difficult thing was to create the platform of almost 500-million users. Now there are many interests in our world for Facebook to start creating a new virtual layer.  As opposed to other experiences, it has to be very open, facilitating integration with other platforms which will push Facebook forward.  As in our real world, there are thousands of ways to create businesses and generate revenue.  Facebook should not be too greedy but allow workers and businesses to make a living, because taxes of any kind tend to slow growth.

I have had this desire of imagining the future of Facebook for some time.  There are many aspects I have not cove red, but the main body of thought is here.  I’d be very pleased if Facebook called me to elaborate a little more on it.